Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Director

I’m offering winner predictions in all categories for the Oscars as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Director.

Oscar Predictions: Best Director

I’m offering predictions in all categories for the Oscar nominations as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Director.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Director

The competition: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

Previous winners: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland), Bong Joon Ho (Parasite), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water), Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman)
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: The only first-time nominee in this category is Hamaguchi, who is also a nominee this year for his film’s screenplay. Spielberg has two wins out of seven for directing, triumphing for “Schindler’s List” and “Saving Private Ryan.” He also contends as a producer this year, a category that has earned him ten additional previous nominations and one win. He also received the Irving G. Thalberg Memorial Award in 1986. This is the eighth nomination for Branagh, who also contends as writer and producer for his film this year. His five previous nods are all in different categories: actor, supporting actor, director, adapted screenplay, and live action short. This is the eleventh nomination for Anderson, who contends as writer and producer for his film this year and has previous screenwriting bids for “Boogie Nights,” “Magnolia,” “There Will Be Blood,” and “Inherent Vice,” with one nomination in this category, for “Phantom Thread.” Campion, who is also nominated as a writer and producer this year, has one previous nomination in this category, for 1993’s “The Piano,” which won her the original screenplay prize. Campion lost this award to Spielberg in that race. Campion has picked up almost all precursors this year. Her nearest competition was Denis Villeneuve for With the exception of when Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated for an Oscar in 2012 for “Argo” and in 2019, the DGA winner has gone on to win this award every year for the past fifteen years.
Who should win: I’m all for Campion winning even if I’d also be happy to see Branagh or Anderson rewarded.
Who will win: I don’t see this going to anyone but Campion.

Oscar Nominees: Best Director

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

It’s hard to even process the omission of Denis Villeneuve for “Dune.” Someone was going to get left out to make room for Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), who had a great day with his film also nominated for Best Picture. Villeneuve’s film was still the second-most nominated, and this stings even more considering the lead actress of one of his previous films, Amy Adams, was snubbed for “Arrival” when Villeneuve did manage to get nominated. It’s hard to argue with the rest of the list, and I’m glad that Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) and Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) didn’t miss out, though the latter may have come close given how little love his film got overall. And then there are the two filmmakers who were nominated against each other way back in 1993: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) and Steven Spielberg (West Side Story). The former definitely has the edge, especially considering her film’s haul today, and it’s also worth noting that Campion is now the first female director nominated more than once for an Oscar.

My current bet to win: This is going to Campion.

Oscar Predictions: Best Director

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), David Fincher (Mank), Lee Issac Chung (Minari), Chloé Zhao (Nomadland), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

My choices: Coming soon!

This year’s locks: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Denis Villeneuve (Dune)

Very likely: Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

Possible: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Adam McKay (Vice), Guillermo Del Toro (Nightmare Alley), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)

Unlikely: Pedro Almodóvar (Parallel Mothers), Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard)

The rundown: I was ready to predict the exact Directors Guild of America lineup before that slate was announced, and now I’m not so confident since the two groups haven’t matched in twelve years. We’ve also seen a surefire nominee fall out nearly every year, like Bradley Cooper for “A Star is Born” or Aaron Sorkin for “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” and be replaced by a foreign film with lots of momentum that didn’t end up getting nominated for Best Picture – “Cold War” and “Another Round” in those cases. While Pedro Almodóvar (Parallel Mothers), Asghar Farhadi (A Hero), or Joachim Trier (The Worst Person in the World) might have seemed like possibilities earlier on in the season – and could still get votes – that slot is definitely going to Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), who also scored with BAFTA, just like both Paweł Pawlikowski and Thomas Vinterberg, whose films also didn’t appear in the top category with either group. So, that means one of the DGA-nominated directors is out. It definitely won’t be Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog). I think that Denis Villeneuve (Dune) and Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) are safe, even though they missed the BAFTA list (but showed up everywhere else). Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) does get a boost from his BAFTA nod, which he didn’t even get when his last film, “Phantom Thread,” crashed the Oscar party without many top-level precursors. That suggests to me that Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) will be the one to get left off, which makes me sad. It’s also possible that Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up) will show up here, but it does give me some confidence to be reminded that both of his previous bids, for “Vice” and “The Big Short,” followed DGA bids. Guillermo Del Toro (Nightmare Alley) is an endearing member of the industry who won this prize over four years ago, and if his film shows up in a big way, he could too. Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) scored a Golden Globe nomination and was also included in the DGA’s first-time filmmaker lineup, but I don’t think her film has enough buzz. Fellow nominees Rebecca Hall (Passing) and Lin-Manuel Miranda (tick, tick...BOOM!) will surely get votes too, but either showing up at this point would be a shock. Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard) is a possibility since his film will be making it into Best Picture, but he’s collected so few prizes this season that it would be a real surprise.

For your consideration: While her film seems set for a Best Picture bid, sadly Sian Heder (CODA) doesn’t seem to be part of the conversation. She would be a wonderful addition.

Forecasted winner: This looks set to be Campion.

AFT Awards: Best Director

This is the twentieth and final category of the 14th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. I’m drawing only from films that were either released or playing at a film festival in the 2020 calendar year. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order):
George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom), Chloé Zhao (Nomadland), Regina King (One Night in Miami), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal), Carlos López Estrada (Summertime), Radha Blank (The 40-Year-Old Version)

Runners-up:
Heidi Ewing (I Carry You with Me)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Lawrence Michael Levine (Black Bear)
Edson Oda (Nine Days)
Angel Manuel Soto (Charm City Kings)

The winner:
David Fincher (Mank) guided a marvelously invested and deeply compelling portrait of young Hollywood and all of its complex elements.

Other nominees:
Benh Zeitlin (Wendy)
Robert Machoian (The Killing of Two Lovers)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Jan Komasa (Corpus Christi)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Director

The competition: Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), David Fincher (Mank), Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Chloé Zhao (Nomadland), and Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

Previous winners: Bong Joon Ho (Parasite), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water), Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman), Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
My winner: Coming soon! 

The facts: This slate is refreshingly new, with only one returning nominee. That’s Fincher, who contended in 2010 for “The Social Network” and in 2008 for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.” His film is the nominations leader, with ten bids. Vinterberg’s film is also nominated for Best International Feature. The other three honorees here are also up for other prizes: Chung as screenwriter, Fennell as screenwriter and producer, and Zhao as screenwriter, producer, and editor. Zhao has dominated this awards season, sweeping almost every group and guild. The few times she didn’t win resulted in a victory for someone not nominated here or, in the case of the Austin Film Critics Association, Chung. With the exception of when Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated for an Oscar in 2012 for “Argo” and last year, the DGA winner has gone on to win this award every year for the past fifteen years. If you haven’t already, check out my interview with Vinterberg the week before he got nominated!

 
Who should win: I’m completely on board with Zhao winning. My personal pick would probably be Fincher or Fennell, but there’s no bad choice here.
Who will win: This is the surest win of the night, for Zhao.

Oscar Nominees: Best Director

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), David Fincher (Mank), Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Chloé Zhao (Nomadland), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

This list isn’t so much of a surprise, with plenty of indicators it might happen. I was still betting on Regina King and hadn’t taken seriously the many people who suggested that Aaron Sorkin might find himself snubbed after a strong precursors performance. I’m delighted to see Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) here after speaking with him last week, and, like Pawel Pawlikowski of “Cold War” two years ago, he translates a BAFTA nomination for Best Director into the same at the Oscars without a Best Picture bid from either group (his film is the frontrunner for Best International Feature). It’s also nice to see Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) get in after he missed out on a Globe nomination. Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) and Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) being nominated make it the first time that two women have been recognized in the same year, something that embarrassingly has never happened before in Oscar history. I was nervous about his chances for a while, but I’m glad to see that David Fincher (Mank) didn’t get left off for a truly strong film that is one of my favorites of 2020. A very good list!

My current bet to win: It’s going to be Zhao.

Oscar Predictions: Best Director

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Todd Phillips (Joker), Sam Mendes (1917), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

My choices: Coming soon!

This year’s locks: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)

Very likely: Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7), David Fincher (Mank), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

Possible: Regina King (One Night in Miami), Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal), Florian Zeller (The Father)

Unlikely: Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), Paul Greengrass (News of the World), Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah), Jasmila Žbanić (Quo Vadis, Aida?)

The rundown: This category is theoretically simple, and the race is technically down to six potential nominees, though anything could happen. I took a look at the overlap between the Oscar lineup and both the DGA list and the corresponding Globe category over the past few decades. It’s rare for any of them to match up completely. DGA aligned perfectly in 2009, 2005, 1998. The Globe list was the same last year, the first time it happened since 1980. That long gap doesn’t make me feel great about predicting a second consecutive year of Globe and Oscar being in sync, but I think I’m going to do it anyway. There’s no way in hell that Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) won’t be nominated, and, in addition to winning virtually every critics’ prize, she’s actually the only one who made the Globe, DGA, Critics Choice, and BAFTA lists (we’ll get back to that last one in a moment). In theory, both Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and David Fincher (Mank) could end up snubbed, but I think there’s enough momentum for their films that they’re theoretically safe. Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) seems like she’s in too, though she peculiarly was left off DGA’s first-time director list but made the main category. The fifth Globe nominee, Regina King (One Night in Miami) only made the former, bumped by Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), who did manage to make BAFTA’s wildly surprising lineup. Both Darius Marder (Sound of Metal) and Florian Zeller (The Father) were cited as first-time directors and could easily disrupt this list. Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) was expected to be a major player here but his precursor performance has been jarringly spotty, with only the Critics Choice Association including him on their roster. I’m intrigued by Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) making the cut with BAFTA, and there’s a possibility that he could follow in the footsteps of Pawel Pawlikowski, who transitioned from BAFTA to Oscar without a Best Picture bid at either organization (also, read my interview with him from earlier this week here). It’s also very unlikely but still within the realm of possibility that Jasmila Žbanić (Quo Vadis, Aida?), another BAFTA nominee who directed a Best International Feature frontrunner, could get in. Don’t count out Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah) either because that film is picking up steam in a big way. Both Kelly Reichardt (First Cow) and Eliza Hittman (Never Rarely Sometimes Always) will get votes, but I don’t think they’ll be enough to earn them spots. There’s no way that this category will be as shocking as BAFTA’s list, but it could be another 2012 where four likely nominees who hit all the right early marks lead to only two transferring, with both Sorkin and Fincher snubbed. I’m not bold enough to predict it, but who knows?

For your consideration: I so wish that one of those surprise 2012 nominees, Benh Zeitlin, would be back in the awards conversation for his wondrous follow-up, “Wendy.”

Forecasted winner: There’s no way Zhao loses.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Director

The competition: Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Todd Phillips (Joker), Sam Mendes (1917), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

Previous winners: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water), Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman), Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
My winner: Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
The facts: All but one of these directors have contended for Oscars before, but only three have been nominated in this category. Scorsese won in 2006 for “The Departed,” and was also nominated in 1980 for “Raging Bull,” in 1988 for “The Last Temptation of Christ,” in 1990 for “Goodfellas,” in 2002 for “Gangs of New York,” in 2004 for “The Aviator,” in 2011 for “Hugo,” and in 2013 for “The Wolf of Wall Street,” with two additional screenplay bids. Tarantino was nominated in this race in 1994 for “Pulp Fiction” and in 2009 for “Inglourious Basterds,” and he won screenplay awards for “Pulp Fiction” and “Django Unchained” in 2012. Phillips was nominated in 2006 for co-writing the screenplay for “Borat.” Mendes won this award twenty years ago for “American Beauty.” Everyone but Scorsese is also nominated for writing their films this year. Mendes has won most precursors, including the Globe, the DGA, and the BAFTA, tying with Bong for the Critics’ Choice Award. With the exception of when Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated for an Oscar in 2012 for “Argo,” the DGA winner has gone on to win this award every year for the past fifteen years.

Who should win: Bong is my clear pick here, though Phillips also did a great job, as did Mendes and Scorsese.
Who will win: There’s a distinct possibility that Bong upsets here, but Mendes seems like a sure thing at this point.

AFT Awards: Best Director

This is the twenty-sixth category of the 13th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order):
Anthony and Joe Russo (Avengers: Endgame), Olivia Wilde (Booksmart), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit), Clint Eastwood (Richard Jewell), Lulu Wang (The Farewell)

Runners-up:
Tom Cullen (Pink Wall)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Céline Sciamma (Portrait of a Lady on Fire)

The winner:
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite) crafted a totally captivating and immersive film that worked on many different levels.

Other nominees:
Joe Talbot (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Justin Chon (Ms. Purple)
Alma Har’el (Honey Boy)

Oscar Nominees: Best Director

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Come back later this week!
The nominees: Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Todd Phillips (Joker), Sam Mendes (1917), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

I was hoping for a surprise of some sort here, but instead we got the exact Golden Globe and BAFTA list. Of course it’s all men, and it’s far from creative, but these are some good working directors. Though I didn’t love the ninth film from Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), he clearly wanted to make a certain kind of movie, which he did. That’s definitely true for Martin Scorsese (The Irishman) as well, who is a former winner in this category along with Sam Mendes (1917). I’m sure that Todd Phillips (Joker) didn’t expect his film to be the nominations leader, while Bong Joon Ho (Parasite) is certainly thrilled to have directed the first Korean movie nominated in this race, for a film that earned six bids. Even if it’s so expected and relatively dull at this point in the race, this list isn’t actually bad.

My current bet to win: I think Bong Joon Ho can pull this off.

Oscar Predictions: Best Director

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Adam McKay (Vice)

My choices: Coming next week!

This year’s locks: Bong Joon Ho (Parasite), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Very likely: Sam Mendes (1917)

Possible: Todd Phillips (Joker), Céline Sciamma (Portrait of a Lady on Fire), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit), Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story), Greta Gerwig (Little Women), Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory)

Unlikely: Mati Drop (Atlantics), Alma Har’el (Honey Boy)

The rundown: This is an intense category. The Golden Globes and BAFTA picked the exact same list, while the DGA deviated with one choice. Last year, sure thing Bradley Cooper found himself snubbed while BAFTA inclusion Pawel Pawlikowski made the cut and DGA addition Yorgos Lanthimos also joined the list. It’s worth noting that the last time the Globe list matched Oscar was way back in 1982. The DGA matches much more frequently, most recently in 2009, 2005, and 1998. Since BAFTA started having five nominees in 1999, their list has matched only once, in 2000. Foreign film contender Bong Joon Ho (Parasite) and two-time nominee (in this category) Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) seem safest. It would be hard to imagine Globe winner Sam Mendes (1917) missing. Though the DGA snubbed him, I think Todd Phillips (Joker) rides a wave of support for his film to a nomination. Now we get to the complicated part. DGA pick Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit) is possible, as is Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory), a nominee way back in 2002 for “Talk to Her,” which didn’t have the benefit of Best Actor buzz and a likely citation in the Best International Feature race. Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story) and Greta Gerwig (Little Women) will surely attract votes, but I don’t think that will be enough for either of them. It’s probably too late for Benny and Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems) to peak. Out of the DGA’s first-time filmmaker nominees, Mati Drop (Atlantics) and Alma Har’el (Honey Boy) may get some love but they would be a shock if they earned enough support. I’m going to go ahead and make a bold prediction of Céline Sciamma (Portrait of a Lady on Fire), whose film has earned many accolades but isn’t France’s submission for Best International Feature, which also means that expected sure thing Martin Scorsese (The Irishman) will miss. I may regret this, but I’m going for it.

One possible crazy scenario: My second-favorite film of the year merits a very worthwhile nomination for DGA first-time filmmaker nominee Joe Talbot (The Last Black Man in San Francisco).

Forecasted winner: I think Bong Joon Ho (Parasite) wins here.

AFT Awards: Best Director

This is the twenty-third category of the 12th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order):
A Star is Born, Annihilation, Black Panther, Blindspotting, Capernaum, Colette, First Man, Mid90s, Never Goin' Back, Night Comes On

Runners-up:
Sebastian Lelio (Disobedience)
Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)
Ziad Doueiri (The Insult)
Simon Baker (Breath)
Bill Oliver (Jonathan)

The winner:
Bart Layton (American Animals) coolly helmed a transformative definition of the documentary-narrative hybrid that set a new bold of expectations for the genre.

Other nominees:
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) made what, for him, counts as a mainstream film, leaving his distinct imprint on a story not at all his own. Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) loyally shepherded a quiet story about two unappreciated women into one of the most poignant portraits of the year. Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) dealt sensitively with a powerful and emotional story, bringing it to the screen with extraordinary care. Steve McQueen (Widows) made an action movie that was so much more than that, tackling class issues and societal problems without sacrificing the direction or pacing of the film.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Director

The competition: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Adam McKay (Vice)

Previous winners: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water), Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman), Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: All of these directors have contended for Oscars before, but only two have been nominated in this category. Cuaron won this award in 2013 for “Gravity,” and, in addition to an editing win for that film and screenwriting bids for “Children of Men” in 2006 and “Y Tu Mama Tambien” in 2002, he contends for writing, producing, and shooting his film this year. McKay was nominated three years ago for “The Big Short,” winning for his screenplay, and he is also a nominee this year for writing and producing his film. Pawlikowski won the Best Foreign Film award in 2014 for “Ida,” and Lanthimos was a nominee there in 2011 for “Dogtooth” before contending in 2016 for his screenplay for “The Lobster.” Lanthimos is also nominated as a producer this year. Lee’s previous bids include a screenwriting nod for “Do the Right Thing” in 1989, a Best Documentary mention in 1997 for “4 Little Girls,” and an honorary award in 2015. He is also nominated for writing and producing his film this year. All but “Cold War” contend for the top prize and screenwriting honors. No film without a Best Picture nomination has ever won this prize. Both “Cold War” and “Roma” are nominated for Best Foreign Film, making this the first time that two honorees in that category are contending here. In addition to numerous critics’ prizes, Cuaron has taken home the DGA Award, the Critics’ Choice prize, the Golden Globe, and the BAFTA. With the exception of when Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated for an Oscar in 2012 for “Argo,” the DGA winner has gone on to win this award every year for the past fifteen years.

Who should win: I found McKay’s structuring of “Vice” to be deeply irritating, and I blame him more than most for why that film is what it is. I can appreciate the aesthetics of “Cold War,” but that film wouldn’t make my list. The same is true of “BlacKkKlansman,” which Lee leaves his mark all over. In a competition between Lanthimos and Cuaron, I’m not set on a winner since both are enormously deserving for two very different films.
Who will win: There are rumblings that Lee could earn his due after barely being nominated for his entire career, but there’s no reason to expect that Cuaron has anything going against him. A loss here would be the biggest surprise of the night.

Oscar Nominees: Best Director

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Adam McKay (Vice)

Even in the age of an expanded Best Picture field, there’s still always a huge snub in this category. There were rumblings that it might be Bradley Cooper, whose directorial debut was once the favorite to win big, and that’s what happened, a bizarre omission that feels most like Ben Affleck six years ago. In his place, we have Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), who surprised with a BAFTA bid earlier this month and managed to repeat that feat here. Joining Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), this is the first and only time since 1976 that two foreign films are represented here (unless you count 2006, but Clint Eastwood directed one of them). I’m not as fond of the Polish film as most, but I can appreciate its directorial style. I’m most disappointed by the inclusion of Adam McKay (Vice), who really didn’t need to be here. There were so many other people who could have been here instead, like Debra Granik or Steve McQueen. Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) finally earned his first-ever nomination in this category, along with Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), whose film tied Cuaron’s for the highest nominations haul.

My current bet to win: I don’t think there’s any taking down Cuaron now with Cooper out of the way.

Oscar Predictions: Best Director

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22nd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), Jordan Peele (Get Out), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread), Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)

My choices: Coming in February!

This year’s locks: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)

Very likely: None

Possible: Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Damien Chazelle (First Man), Peter Farrelly (Green Book), Adam McKay (Vice), Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)

Unlikely: Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk), Debra Granik (Leave No Trace), Paul Schrader (First Reformed), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

The rundown: We’ve arrived at one of the biggest categories of the year, which is very much in danger of being extremely boring. The DGA list matched the Golden Globes’ picks exactly, which has only happened three times when both groups had five nominees, most recently in 2010. Only once, in 1977, did those two lists end up being what Oscar chose too. When there were only five Best Picture nominees, there used to be a “lone director slot” that went to another film, but that’s only happened once in the case of the expanded field, with Bennett Miller earning a bid for “Foxcatcher” in 2014. This year, the undisputed frontrunner is Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), who has already taken home prizes from the Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards. He won this prize in 2013 for “Gravity.” There’s no reason to suspect that Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) won’t earn his first-ever bid in this category, and, though I’ve read worrisome reports to the contrary, the same is true of Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), a three-time acting nominee whose film should be totally fine for nominations even if it won’t win as many awards as predicted long ago. The other two potential nominees embraced by both the Globes and DGA are Peter Farrelly (Green Book) and Adam McKay (Vice). The former made a film that, traditionally, wouldn’t end up with a directing bid, while the latter, who was nominated in 2015 for “The Big Short,” made a controversial film that many don’t like. If the film is as popular as people think it will be, Ryan Coogler (Black Panther) could get a nomination, but it doesn’t seem likely at this point. Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) has missed out too many times this awards season to be considered a real contender anymore, but he did helm the film that won Best Picture just two years ago, “Moonlight,” and therefore shouldn’t be counted out entirely. With conversation about how the field looks to be all men again this year, Debra Granik (Leave No Trace) seems to be the woman with the best chance, and I would be thrilled even if I really don’t think it’s going to happen at this point. Film devotees would love to honor Paul Schrader (First Reformed) for his long career, but that film has missed out on any nominations with most guilds even after collecting a number of critics’ prizes. Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War) surprised with a BAFTA nomination, and his film is expected to be a foreign film nominee, so don’t count him out. I’m going to predict Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), who scored bids from BAFTA and the Critics’ Choice Awards, to take a spot, which seems likely given love for the film. My choice for the fifth slot is indisputably riskier since, though he won this prize just two years ago for “La La Land,” Damien Chazelle (First Man) only merited a Critics’ Choice nomination from all the major precursor groups, and his film is not expected to show up in the Best Picture list. It’s bold, but I feel like I’m not taking nearly as many chances as I usually have in the past, so here goes. His achievement is a technical one, and I think he’ll be rewarded here.

One possible crazy scenario: His film is expected to score a few technical bids, but John Krasinski (A Quiet Place) could shock by earning a place here for his suspenseful thriller.

Forecasted winner: Some are saying Lee, but I’m sticking with Cuaron.

AFT Awards: Best Director

This is the twenty-third category of the 11th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order):
A United Kingdom, Axolotl Overkill, Baby Driver, Band Aid, Below Her Mouth, Blade Runner 2049, Blame, Brigsby Bear, Call Me By Your Name, Coco, Darkest Hour, David Brent: Life on the Road, Deidra and Laney Rob a Train, Downsizing, Free and Easy, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Holy Air, In the Fade, Ingrid Goes West, It Happened in L.A., Jungle, Landline, Logan, Marjorie Prime, Menashe, Mudbound, My Life as a Zucchini, Novitiate, One Percent More Humid, Permission, Princess Cyd, Rememory, Some Freaks, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Stronger, The Big Sick, The Boy Downstairs, The Disaster Artist, The Fate of the Furious, The Hero, The Last Movie Star, The Last Word, The Meyerowitz Stories, The Salesman, The Vanishing of Sidney Hall, The Wedding Plan, The Women's Balcony, The Zookeeper's Wife, Tomorrow Ever After, Wilson, Wonder, Wonderstruck

Runners-up:
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Martin Zandvliet (Land of Mine)
Maysaloun Hamoud (In Between)
Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris (Battle of the Sexes)
Andrew J. Smith and Alex Smith (Walking Out)

The winner:
Sean Baker (The Florida Project) transformed a simple story of those living on the outskirts of success into a stunning, powerful portrait of poverty in America.

Other nominees:
Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water) guided another masterful vision of a misunderstood monster to the screen with a loving and sweet touch. Cory Finley (Thoroughbreds) invigorated a dark story of two unlikely friends with humor and a sense of purpose. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) didn’t need outer space or time travel to tell a compelling story filled with intensity and expert pacing. Jamie M. Dagg (Sweet Virginia) helmed a gripping, suspenseful film with focus and a fierce commitment to his characters.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Director

The competition: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), Jordan Peele (Get Out), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread), Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Previous winners: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman), Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist), Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!

The facts: Just won of these directors is a returning nominee, and that’s Anderson, who was previously nominated for two original screenplays, two adapted screenplays, and for directing “There Will Be Blood.” Nolan had two screenwriting bids for “Memento” and “Inception.” Del Toro was nominated for writing “Pan’s Labyrinth.” This year, Anderson and Nolan are also nominated as producers, Gerwig as a writer, and Peele and Del Toro as writers and producers. Del Toro won the Golden Globe, the DGA Award, and the Critics’ Choice Award. He also won the BAFTA, though Nolan was the only other one from this list nominated. A director who has won both the Golden Globe and the DGA Award has gone on not to win the Oscar exactly three times: in 1949, when Robert Rossen lost for “All the King’s Men” to Joseph L. Mankiewicz for “A Letter to Three Wives,” in 2000 when Ang Lee lost for “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” to Steven Soderbergh for “Traffic,” and in 2012 when Ben Affleck wasn’t even nominated for the Oscar for “Argo.” The last two years, the film that won this award did not win Best Picture, but, aside from Affleck in 2012, the DGA winner has gone on to win this prize since 2003.

Who should win: I don’t know what necessitated the inclusion of Anderson here when his film is hardly in the same category as the rest. I can understand the enthusiasm for Peele even if I don’t think that the film merits the buzz it’s gotten, though I suppose directing would probably be the best place to honor it. Gerwig did a wonderful job bringing her story to life and would be a decent choice. It’s shocking that Nolan earned his first Oscar directing bid for a film that’s so normal in so many ways, but it’s still a tour de force. Over the rest, I would choose Del Toro’s vision of his mesmerizing universe.

Who will win: Anderson doesn’t have a shot, but the other four will all get votes. The fact that Del Toro has pretty much won everything thus far means that he’s far enough ahead that a victory for Peele or Gerwig’s films would happen in the original screenplay or Best Picture category instead. Nolan might have had a good chance if he had collected more prizes thus far this awards season.

Oscar Nominees: Best Director

My predictions: 4/5, picking Sean Baker over Anderson
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), Jordan Peele (Get Out), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread), Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)

So, I was right on two counts here, but I’m still disappointed. I predicted that Martin McDonagh would be left off, putting a huge stumbling block in the way of “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” winning Best Picture. And I wrote in my no guts, no glory predictions that Anderson would make the cut for “Phantom Thread.” But couldn’t there have been room for Sean Baker for “The Florida Project,” which managed just one nomination for the admittedly terrific Willem Dafoe but nothing to acknowledge the film as a whole. The other nominees are expected, ditching Globe choices Steven Spielberg for “The Post” and Ridley Scott for “All the Money in the World,” rewarding those films with two and one nominations, respectively. I’m thrilled for Gerwig and happy enough for Peele even though I didn’t particularly like his film, and it’s good to see Nolan and Del Toro finally rewarded.

My current bet to win: I think that Del Toro can still take this without too much trouble.